According to the pollster, in this hypothetical scenario, Arauz would win the Presidency with more than 10 points over Lasso.
The pollster Clima Social published its study for the month of January, in which it collects electoral preferences and voting trends in the country for the elections of February 7, 2021. In this analysis, the candidate for UNES, Andrés Arauz, leads polls with 30.1% of valid votes.
In total, 11.537 surveys were conducted, with men and women over 16 years of age, authorized to vote, in the 24 provinces of the country.
The margin of error at the national level is +/- 2.2% and the confidence level is 95%.
According to the pollster, the UNES union, Andrés Arauz and Carlos Rabascall, would have 30.1% of valid votes. In second place would be the binomial of CREO, Guillermo Lasso and Alfredo Borrero with 21.5% and in third place, the formula of Pachakutik, Yaku Pérez and Virma Cedeño with 17.2%. In the same way, the level of indecision would be 8.4%, null vote 4.4% and white 0.8%.
The study also shows that, in a hypothetical Second Round, between Guillermo Lasso and Andrés Arauz, the UNES candidate would win the elections with 41.4% of valid votes and the CREO candidate would obtain 30.9% of votes . In this scenario, the invalid vote would reach 15.9%, the target 8.1% and the people who have not yet decided borders 8%.
On the other hand, the tables for the national assembly members establish that UNES has a higher voting preference in these elections. In the same way, the other movements that would have a considerable percentage in this segment are: CREO, Pachakutik and the Social Cristiano Party.
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Source: Social Climate